Mortgage rates above 7% through 2027: what buyers can do

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The Mortgage Bankers Association expects 30-year mortgage rates to stay above 7% through the end of 2027. If you already know you’ll buy in the next year, waiting for rates to drop isn’t much of a plan, and the slower months before spring are when buyers usually have the most room to negotiate.

What the MBA just said

At its annual convention this month, the MBA released its updated forecast. It has the 30-year rate averaging about 7.3% for the rest of 2026 and staying above 7% all through 2027. MBA’s economists also expect the Fed to raise rates again in December and once more early next year. (MBA, Realtor.com)

For context, Freddie Mac’s weekly average hit 7.40% on Oct 8, the highest in about three years. A year earlier it was 6.30%. (Freddie Mac)

MBA also pointed out that purchase activity dropped off once rates got into the 7% range, and that more buyers are turning to adjustable-rate loans or paying points to get a lower rate. (BAM)

My take: the rate isn’t coming to save anybody

If you’ve been waiting for rates to come back down before you start looking, I get it. Nobody’s excited about a 7 in front of their rate. I’m not going to pretend it’s comfortable.

But the people whose whole job is forecasting this are telling us it isn’t coming down in any meaningful way next year. Forecasts miss sometimes. Still, “maybe they’re wrong” is a rough thing to build a move around.

So the question changes. It’s not “when do rates drop?” It’s “if this is the rate, how do I get the best deal I can?”

And right now, that question has a better answer than it’s had in a while.

What’s happening in the South Metro

Buyers have stepped back, and homes have piled up.

Nationally, mortgage applications to buy a home were down 15% from a year earlier in early October. (Calculated Risk) You can see the same thing here.

In September, there were 1,166 previously owned homes for sale across the South Metro area I track, up 30.9% from 891 a year earlier. Pending sales went the other direction, down 5.9% (from 376 to 354).

That pushed months of supply to 3.1, up from 2.4 last September. Months of supply is how long it would take to sell every home on the market if nothing new got listed. The higher it goes, the more choice buyers have. And 3.1 is the highest it’s been in my data going back to January 2023.

To be straight with you, 3.1 months still isn’t what most people would call a buyer’s market. That usually takes something closer to six. But it’s the most choice South Metro buyers have had in years, and it’s tilting their way.

I’m seeing more buyers successfully negotiate on price and concessions right now, and the agents in my office are seeing the same thing. A year or two ago, a lot of those asks would’ve been a nonstarter.

Source: Northstar MLS, previously owned homes, my South Metro area, September 2025 vs. September 2026. Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Why the next few months may matter more than spring

Here’s what usually happens around here.

Come February, the buyers who sat out waiting for rates to fall start to realize they’re not falling. New listings show up. Spring does its thing, and everybody comes back at once.

The numbers show it pretty clearly. Pending sales in my area went from 223 in December 2025 to 277 in February and 429 in March. That’s up 92% from December to March. The year before followed the same shape: 218, then 307, then 409. New listings roughly tripled from December to March both years.

If the MBA’s forecast holds, spring buyers will be shopping at the same 7%-plus rate you’d get today. The difference is you’d be competing with all of them.

None of this means you have to buy this fall. If you’re not sure you’ll want to move in the next year, don’t let a forecast rush you into it. But if you already know you will, this stretch deserves a serious look.

Ways buyers are working around a 7% rate

There are more options here than most people realize. A few I’m seeing and talking through with buyers:

  • Asking the seller to cover closing costs. With more homes sitting, more sellers are open to it.
  • Using seller-paid costs to buy down your rate. Instead of putting a concession toward closing costs, some buyers put it toward points to lower the rate. Loan programs set limits on how much a seller can contribute, so check with your lender first.
  • Adjustable-rate mortgages. ARMs were about 10% of applications over the past month, and they’ve been running roughly 0.8 percentage points below fixed rates. (HousingWire) The catch: after the fixed period ends, your rate and payment can go up. Know the worst-case number before you sign.
  • Interest-only loans. A few buyers have asked me about these. Payments are lower early on because you’re not paying down the loan yet. That’s also the downside. When the interest-only period ends, the payment jumps. They’re not for most people.

Every one of these has a tradeoff. The right one depends on how long you plan to stay and what your budget can handle if things change. Talk with your lender before you pick one. If you don’t have one yet, I’m happy to connect you with someone I trust.

More on financing in my rates and financing posts and on the buying process in my posts for buyers.

What to watch

  • Freddie Mac’s weekly rate, out every Thursday.
  • MBA’s weekly mortgage applications, out every Wednesday. It’s the quickest read on whether buyers are coming back.
  • The Fed’s December meeting, where MBA expects another quarter-point hike.
  • February listings and pendings in the South Metro. That’s when we’ll see whether the spring rush shows up on schedule. I’ll post the numbers.

If rates really do stay above 7% through next year, does that change when you’d buy, or are you still waiting it out? I’d like to hear it.

FAQ

Will mortgage rates go down in 2027?

The Mortgage Bankers Association doesn’t expect much relief. Its October 2026 forecast has 30-year rates staying above 7% through the end of 2027. Forecasts can miss, but that’s the current outlook from one of the main industry groups that tracks it.

Is it a buyer’s market in the South Metro right now?

Not by the traditional definition, which usually means about six months of supply. In September 2026 the South Metro area I track had 3.1 months of supply, up from 2.4 a year earlier and the highest since at least January 2023. It’s tilting toward buyers, and more buyers are negotiating on price and concessions.

Is it better to buy in the fall or the spring?

It depends on your situation, but fall and winter usually bring less competition. In the South Metro, pending sales nearly doubled from December 2025 to March 2026, so spring buyers tend to compete with a lot more people.

Can a seller pay to buy down my interest rate?

Often, yes. Seller concessions can usually go toward points that lower your rate, within the limits your loan program sets. Your lender can tell you exactly what’s allowed for your loan.

Are adjustable-rate mortgages a good idea right now?

They can be for some buyers, especially those who don’t plan to stay long. ARMs start lower than fixed rates, but the rate can rise after the fixed period. Make sure you know the highest your payment could go before choosing one.

Sources

  • Mortgage Bankers Association, “MBA Forecast: Mortgage Originations to Decrease 5 Percent in 2027 as Mortgage Rates Remain Above 7 Percent,” Oct 11, 2026. mba.org
  • Realtor.com (Keith Griffith), “Mortgage Rates Will Remain Above 7% Through 2027, Top Economist Forecasts,” Oct 11, 2026. Yahoo Finance
  • BAM (Sarah Lentz), “Mortgage Rates Above 7% Through 2027, According to MBA’s Latest Forecast,” Oct 13, 2026. nowbam.com
  • Freddie Mac, “Mortgage Rates Average 7.40%,” Oct 8, 2026. freddiemac.com
  • Calculated Risk, “High Frequency Data: Recent Surge in Mortgage Rates Impacting Existing Home Supply and Demand,” Oct 7, 2026. calculatedrisk.substack.com
  • HousingWire, “Mortgage applications fall 6% as rates hit highest level in three years,” Sept 30, 2026. housingwire.com
  • Northstar MLS via InfoSparks, previously owned homes, My South Metro Area, January 2023 to September 2026, pulled Oct 14, 2026.

Published Oct 14, 2026 by Travis Wyman.

More Homes, Less Competition: What the Spring 2026 Twin Cities Market Actually Looks Like

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If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines of the Twin Cities housing market this year, the data from the past few weeks is worth paying attention to. We’re at the peak of the spring market, and three things just lined up in a way buyers haven’t seen in a while.

1. There are more homes on the market than last year

As of the week ending April 11, 2026, there were 8,910 active listings across the Twin Cities region. That’s up 5.8% from the same week in 2025, according to the Minneapolis Area Realtors weekly market activity report.

More importantly, new listings that same week came in at 1,733, up 11.4% year over year. That’s sellers finally stepping off the fence and bringing homes to market, which is exactly what buyers have been asking for since roughly 2021.

2. Buyer competition is actually down

This is what surprises most people. Pending sales for the week ending April 11 were down 7% compared to last year. Fewer buyers under contract means less competition for the homes that are hitting the market. You’re not bidding against a crowd the way you would have been a few years ago.

Pair that with inventory sitting at 2.3 months of supply (up from 2.2 last March), and you’ve got a market that’s slowly but meaningfully tilting toward buyers. It’s not a buyer’s market yet, but it’s the closest thing we’ve seen in a long time.

3. Prices aren’t crashing, and that’s good news

This is where some folks get spooked. If inventory is up and competition is down, shouldn’t prices be falling?

Not really, and not right now. The median sale price in March 2026 was $380,000, flat compared to March 2025. Sellers are still getting 98.5% of their original list price on average. So the market isn’t rolling over, it’s just breathing.

Why does that matter for you as a buyer? Because it means you can negotiate without trying to time a crash that isn’t coming. You get better selection, more room to inspect and negotiate, and you’re not paying peak-frenzy prices from 2021. And you’re building equity in a market that’s holding its value.

What this means if you’ve been “just looking”

Every spring there’s a window where inventory, buyer competition, and rates line up well enough that the people who actually move get the best deals of the year. We’re in that window right now.

The buyers who wait until June or July to get serious are going to run into two problems. First, the best spring listings will already be under contract. Second, if rates drop later this year the way some are predicting, competition jumps right back up and that 2.3 months of supply gets compressed fast.

If you’re targeting Lakeville, Rosemount, Apple Valley, Farmington, Eagan, Burnsville, Savage, Shakopee, or Prior Lake, the inventory picture varies by city. Some of these markets are moving faster than the regional average, others are slower. A regional number doesn’t tell you what’s happening on your specific block.

Two easy next steps

If you want to actually act on this data, here’s how I’d do it.

Get a custom MLS search built around your criteria. Tell me your target cities, price range, and must-haves, and I’ll build you a saved search in the MLS. You’ll get new listings every morning. Fill out this form to let me know what you’re looking for.

Book a 15-minute discovery call. We’ll talk through what you’re actually looking for, I’ll pull the data for your specific target cities, and you’ll walk away with a clear picture of what’s out there right now. No pressure, no pitch. Book here

The spring window is open. It doesn’t stay open long.

Travis Wyman is a licensed Realtor with Pemberton Real Estate serving the South Metro Twin Cities. Reach him at 612-887-9716 or traviswyman.com.

Data sources: Minneapolis Area Realtors Weekly Market Activity Report, week ending April 11, 2026. All comparisons to same week in 2025.

Which Real Estate Agent Helps the Most with Downsizing in Lakeville, MN?

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Thinking about downsizing in Lakeville? Maybe the kids are gone, you’re tired of maintaining a big house, or you just want something simpler. Whatever the reason, downsizing isn’t just about finding a smaller place. It’s about making sure the move actually improves your life instead of adding stress to it.

That’s where I come in.

Why Downsizing in Lakeville Makes Sense Right Now

Lakeville has some of the best downsizing options in the South Metro. You’ve got low-maintenance townhomes, active adult communities, and smaller single-family homes in great neighborhoods. You don’t have to leave the area you love just because you don’t need four bedrooms anymore.

The challenge? Coordinating the sale of your current home, figuring out what to keep and what to let go of, and finding a place that actually fits your next chapter. It’s a lot to juggle, and most agents treat it like any other transaction.

I don’t.

How I Help Lakeville Homeowners Downsize Without the Stress

Downsizing isn’t just about square footage. It’s emotional. It’s practical. And it requires a different approach than selling to a family moving up.

Here’s what working with me looks like:

We Start With Your Goals, Not Mine
Some people want to stay in Lakeville. Some want a ranch with no stairs. Some want to be closer to grandkids or farther from lawn care. I’m not here to push you into something. I’m here to figure out what you actually want and then make it happen.

I Know the Downsizing Market in Lakeville
I know which townhome communities have the best HOAs, which neighborhoods have walkable amenities, and which properties are low-maintenance in name only. That knowledge saves you time and keeps you from making expensive mistakes.

I’ll Help You Sell Your Current Home for What It’s Worth
Your home has probably appreciated quite a bit over the years. I’ll make sure you get top dollar for it so you can move into your next place without financial stress. That means smart pricing, professional marketing, and honest advice about what updates matter and what don’t.

I Make the Transition Easier
Downsizing means dealing with decades of stuff. I can connect you with estate sale companies, movers, organizers, and anyone else you need to make this less overwhelming. You’re not doing this alone.

What Downsizing Clients Say About Working With Me

“Travis was very understanding and patient with me. I started my search about a year ago. My wants and needs were all over the place at that time. I was having a hard time trying to decide if I wanted to purchase another house, If a townhome or a condo would better suit my needs, or, maybe I should just rent an apartment somewhere. After a month or so, I gave up and decided to stay where I was until I could finally decide what I wanted to do. Travis continued to keep in touch throughout the months that followed. I never felt he was putting any pressure on me to make up my mind. I finally decided that I wanted a condo. Travis considered all of the things that were most important to me and found a perfect place within a very short time. He helped me every step of the way and coordinated my closing exactly when I needed it to be. He was always very responsive to all my calls and put my mind at ease every step of the way. Thank you, Travis!” – Linda I.

Common Questions About Downsizing in Lakeville

What’s the best type of home for downsizing in Lakeville?
It depends on your lifestyle. Townhomes and condos are popular because they’re low-maintenance, but some people prefer a smaller single-family home with a yard. We’ll talk through what makes sense for you.

Should I sell my house first or find my new place first?
Usually, I recommend selling first so you know exactly what you’re working with financially. But every situation is different, and we can build a plan that works for your timeline.

How do I know what my current home is worth?
That’s where I come in. I’ll give you an honest market analysis based on current data in Lakeville, not some random Zillow estimate.

Let’s Talk About Your Downsizing Plan

Downsizing is a big decision, and you shouldn’t have to figure it out alone. Let’s sit down and talk about what you want your next chapter to look like. Call or text me at 612-887-9716 to set up a complimentary consultation.

Who’s the Best Real Estate Agent for Selling Your Home in Lakeville?

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Look, if you’re selling your house in Lakeville, you probably want two things: top dollar and as little stress as possible. Fair enough.

I work with sellers all over the South Metro, and Lakeville is one of my favorite markets. Why? Because I know what buyers are looking for here. I know which updates actually move the needle on price and which ones don’t matter. And I know how to position your home so it stands out instead of sitting.

Why Lakeville Sellers Work With Me

Selling isn’t just about throwing your house on Zillow and hoping for the best. It’s about pricing it right from day one, making sure it looks its best, and getting it in front of the buyers who are actually ready to move.

Here’s what that looks like when we work together:

  • I price homes based on current market data, not what Zillow says or what your neighbor thinks. That means you’re competitive from the start.
  • Every listing gets professional photography, staging advice, and a targeted digital marketing plan. That’s standard, not an upsell.
  • I know Lakeville. I know which neighborhoods are hot right now, what buyers care about in this area, and how to talk about your home in a way that gets attention.
  • You’ll always know what’s happening. I don’t disappear after the sign goes up. You get regular updates, honest feedback, and a clear plan from listing to closing.

You’re not just getting a sign in your yard. You’re getting a strategy built around your home, your timeline, and your goals.

What a Recent Seller Said

We feel so lucky to have met Travis by chance at the first house we had interest in when beginning the search for our new home. He made himself available immediately to stop by our current house to help us determine next steps and was very quick to help us submit offers. He’s also great with negotiation and so knowledgeable about the entire home selling and buying process. We found our dream home with his help and got a heck of a deal thanks to his guidance! We are relieved to finally be home sweet home but will definitely miss his friendly and professional services that are of the highest quality!responsive, honest, and really fought for us during negotiations. We got a great price and closed on our timeline.” – Molly. V., Lakeville

Let’s Talk About Your Home

Want to know what your home’s worth and how we’d sell it? Let’s talk. Text or call me at 612-887-9716 and we’ll set something up.

The $27,000 Pricing Gap: What Buyers and Sellers Need to Know

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If you’re planning to buy or sell a home in 2025, there’s a key trend you need to know: buyers and sellers aren’t seeing eye to eye on price. A recent Clever Real Estate survey revealed a $27,000 gap between what buyers expect to pay and what sellers hope to get. Buyers are budgeting around $386,507, while sellers are aiming for $413,976.

So, what’s driving this pricing gap, and how can you navigate it? Let’s break it down.

What’s Behind the $27,000 Pricing Gap?

Sellers Are Riding High on Confidence

After years of rising home prices, sellers are entering 2025 with optimism. In fact, 74% of sellers believe they’ll sell at or above asking price. However, with market conditions stabilizing, these high expectations may not always align with buyer budgets.

Buyers Are Feeling the Pinch

On the flip side, buyers are grappling with rising mortgage rates and affordability challenges. Nearly 68% worry escalating prices will delay their purchase plans. Budget constraints often lead to tougher negotiations or missed opportunities.

While 87% of buyers and sellers expect strong demand in 2025, housing economists predict smaller price increases compared to previous years. This stabilization could mean buyers have more negotiating power, while sellers might need to rethink pricing strategies.

Tips for Buyers: How to Bridge the Gap

Navigating the $27,000 gap can feel overwhelming, but these strategies can help:

  • Know Your Market: Research local home prices and trends. Being informed gives you an edge in negotiations.
  • Be Flexible: If you can’t meet the asking price, consider other ways to sweeten your offer, like flexible closing dates or waived contingencies.
  • Leverage Stabilizing Prices: Slower price growth in 2025 could work in your favor during negotiations.

Tips for Sellers: Attracting the Right Offers

Sellers, getting top dollar means setting realistic expectations and preparing your home to shine. Here’s how:

  • Price Strategically: Partner with a local real estate expert to price your home competitively. Nearly 49% of agents agree pricing is the key to a quick sale.
  • Stage Your Home: Professional staging or high-quality photos can help justify your asking price.
  • Stay Open to Negotiations: Flexibility can mean the difference between a quick sale and a prolonged listing.

What the Pricing Gap Means for the 2025 Real Estate Market

The $27,000 pricing gap highlights a broader trend in the housing market: cautious buyers versus confident sellers. Bridging this gap will require both sides to adjust their expectations. For buyers, it’s about realistic budgeting and smart negotiations. For sellers, it’s understanding market trends and pricing your property to attract serious offers.

With the right strategies and a little compromise, 2025 could be a great year for both buyers and sellers.

TL;DR

  • Buyers expect to spend $386,507, while sellers aim for $413,976—a $27,000 pricing gap.
  • Sellers are confident, but buyers are cautious due to rising costs and mortgage rates.
  • Strategic planning and realistic expectations are key for navigating the 2025 real estate market.

Are you ready to tackle the 2025 housing market? Let’s work together to achieve your goals!

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